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2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational Expert Analysis – PGA Betting With the 2021 Players Championship set for next week, a handful of the world's best golfers will be in action when the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitation gets underway on Thursday, March 4, live from Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. But stroke play, or medal play, rules the golf betting board at least 5 to 10 times per year. “Futures” odds on potential championship scores in major tournaments are a popular pastime in spring and summer. Speculators bet on golf futures odds using the same calculations as for “moneylines” in football, baseball, or basketball. Most sportsbooks had Koepka listed as the 10/1 co-favorite (Bet $100 to win $1,000) to win the 2019 PGA Championship. How to Bet on Golf Golf betting has gained much more exposure and interest in the past few years, and with plenty of plus-money prices littered throughout the various forms of golf wagers, the chance for bigger scores is part of.

• August 4, 2020
• By Matt Blunt
• VegasInsider.com

Weekly PGA
Picks & Predictions

Golf Major Betting Resources
2020 PGA Championship

It's the first Major of this unique 2020 season this week, as the Tour heads out west to San Francisco for the PGA Championship. It's a tournament where last week's runner-up Brooks Koepka, is the two-time defending champion of this event, and will amazingly have his second crack at three-peating as a Major champion in as many years.

His form at the St Jude was what many wanted to see from Koepka before pulling the trigger on him this week, and on a course where having length is definitely an advantage, Koepka's price (+1100) is only going to get shorter.

However, only one other player has had an opportunity to win three consecutive PGA Championships, and both times he had that opportunity, Tiger Woods came up short. In 2001 it was David Toms who thwarted Tiger's three-peat, and in 2008 it was Padraig Harrington.

There is a first time for everything I know, but Koepka's price, the history he's up against, and the idea that his T2 at St Jude was really thanks to a lights out Thursday (-8) and then holding in the pack shooting -2 total over the final three days, has me passing on him this week.

• Tour: PGA
• Date: Thursday, Aug. 6, 2020 to Sunday, Aug. 9, 2020
• Venue: TPC Harding Park
• Location:San Francisco, California
• Par-Yardage: 70, 7,235 yards
• TV: ESPN, CBS

The course is virtually identical in length to last week's trek at the St Jude, but there should be some drama on the Back 9 over the weekend. The 17th hole is a 250-yard Par 3 hole, that comes directly after a 340-yard, potentially driveable Par 4. Finish the round with the 510+ yard Par 4 18th hole and who knows what kind of numbers we could see from guys late.

Rough and fast greens are always going to be the main ways guys get in trouble at PGA Championships, and it will be interesting to see how many guys choose to dial it back at times just to keep things easier by being in play. It's not a foreign track to many of these guys either, as Rory McIlroy won the 2015 WGC Match Play here, and the USA won the 2009 President's Cup at this venue as well.

PGA Championship
Betting Odds

Only last week's winner Justin Thomas (+900) has better odds then the aforementioned Brooks Koepka (+1100), who are followed by Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy, and Jon Rahm all at +1500. Xander Schauffele (+1800), Dustin Johnson (+2300), and Patrick Cantlay (+2500) are the only other names below 30-1, as it's in that group where Tiger Woods (+3300) and a host of other great names sit.

Interestingly enough, the fact that nobody in the stroke play era of the PGA Championship has ever three-peated as champion wasn't the only interesting historical note I came across this week.

• Brooks Koepka: +1000
• Justin Thomas: +1100
• Jon Rahm: +1400
• Rory McIlroy: +1400
• Bryson DeChambeau: +1600
• Dustin Johnson: +2000
• Xander Schauffele: +2000
• Webb Simpson: +2500
• Patrick Cantlay: +3000
• Collin Morikawa: +3300
• (Odds Subject to Change)

More recent history shows that each of the past eight PGA Champions, and nine of the past 10, have had a Top 18 finish or better in at least one of the two previous PGA Championships. In other words, Justin Thomas finished 18th at the PGA Championship in 2015, he then won it two years later. Each of the past eight champions can say the same. The only outlier in the bunch?

Keegan Bradley's 2011 PGA Championship win when that tournament was his first career Major of any kind.

There are some interesting names when you go back to consider this week when you go back and break down who finished 18th or better in the 2019 and 2018 PGA Championships, and it was a nice way to break down the field. But that breakdown also includes Koepka three-peating as a potential outcome too, so I guess we will see if any of these historical runs hold up for another year.

Golfers to Watch - TPC Harding Park
Top Picks and Predictions

Contender to Back
PGA Championship

Xander Schauffele +1800

Schauffele's seemingly taken all the right steps upward throughout his young career so far, as he's won, and won big events, but just not that Major yet. With three rounds of 68 or better, and no rounds over par at the St Jude last week, that's an example of what I mean when one scorching hot day didn't carry the result, and that form is just something I prefer.

No previous experience at this track may hurt him slightly, but it will be so negligible relative to his talent that it shouldn't take but a solid week of practice to feel comfortable. Five Top 20's in six starts over the past two months, and three Top 14's in his last three outings overall should bring no concerns in form either.

The fact that Xander has beaten quality, deep fields like this in the past tells you he knows what to do late if he's there, and winning a Major is that ultimate next step he's got to take in his career. I believe that if you were to put odds on which Major Xander would win first assuming you knew he got at least one, the PGA Championship would likely be one of the top two favorites no matter where it's held. Why not a PGA Championship in his home state of California, when he's playing some of his most consistent and best golf of his career?

Mid-Range Value
PGA Championship

Gary Woodland +5000

Woodland is one of six names in the field this week that has actually finished in the Top 18 in each of the past two PGA Championships, although there is no correlation to those guys being more likely to win in that historical run.

But Woodland actually has two Top-8's at this event the past two years, and it was just a month later after last year's 8th place finish that he broke through and won the US Open. Knowing he has that ability can be huge down the stretch, and while his finishes have been going the wrong way his last three starts, he's still gaining strokes on the field in putting every week. A steady putter will take guys a long way in a Major championship.

If Woodland spends too much time around the green his outright's take a hit, but the approach game is still relatively dialed in if you look at every event he's played in 2020, and he's never lost strokes to the field in approach in two consecutive weeks during that time. He lost strokes last week at the St Jude.

Therefore, the confidence is there that Woodland should be able to turn that part of his game around at a place he does actually have great memories of. He finished 2nd to Rory in that 2015 WGC Match Play event at Harding Park. Dial things back to the way they were that week, with the head on his shoulders he's got now, and Woodland could have his second Major title in as many seasons this week.

Long Shot Pick
PGA Championship

Chez Reavie +10000

Reavie is another one of those six players to have a Top 18 finish at this tournament each of the past two years (T14 in 2019, T12 in 2018), and he's just quietly gone about his business since the restart. In Reavie's last five starts starting with last week, he's finished 6th, 22nd, 17th, 46th, and 74th. That's not bad at all and clearly trending in the direction you'd want a 100-1 shot to be. And that 22nd at the Memorial could have been much better had he not shot 79 on a final Sunday that was still one of the worst scores on a day where nobody put up pretty numbers.

Furthermore, he's done nothing but stripe the ball relative to the field in recent weeks - +2.10 SG: Approach last week – and is just at the mercy of how good he's rolling the ball with the putter. If that's the biggest concern for a guy that's playing well and sits at this price, I'll gladly take on that risk.

Top Props & Matchup Wagers
PGA Championship

72 Hole Matchup to Take
PGA Championship

Shane Lowry (-112) over Justin Rose

Might as well keep the theme going of backing these recent Top 18 finishers, as Lowry is another one of those six names to do it each of the past two years. Like Woodland, Lowry is another guy that found a way to break through on the biggest stage last year (British Open) and from a mental/confidence perspective that's always only a plus. But this play is more about fading Justin Rose and his play of three straight missed cuts of late.

Statistically, Rose isn't doing a whole lot of things all that well right now, and if the approach game waivers, that's when those awful weeks come about. He didn't particularly like his stay here in 2015 where he failed to get out of the group stage, and ultimately, there has been nothing he's shown lately that suggests he's anything but a fade this week.

Top 40 Finish – Yes
PGA Championship

Adam Scott +100
Jordan Spieth +100

Had Scott shown anything in competition prior to this being his first event since the restart, outright futures would have been more strongly considered. But the unknown (on the handicapping end at least) of the shape of his game has taking the cushion with placing in this prop the more desired way to support him this week.

Scott is the fourth name of six to have consecutive Top 18 finishes in the PGA the past two years to appear in this piece, and like Rose, he played here in 2015 but failed to get out of the group stage. But when ball striking is highly important, Scott's name is always one to at least glance at, scenarios working against him or not.

He's been around long enough that the break shouldn't bring too much rust, and trusting him to make the weekend and go from there for even money isn't the worst option out there.

Spieth is the final name to have Top 18 finishes here the past two years (Koepka would be the 6th), and he's actually shown some positive things in his game from top to bottom the past couple of starts. He's gained strokes on the field in every category but off the tee the past two starts, and those have been some quality-laced fields themselves (Memorial and St Jude).

He's another guy that it wouldn't surprise me if he finished outside the Top 40 this week, but at the same time he's done enough recently where wanting to kick yourself becomes an option on Monday if you don't take him at even money to finish in the Top 40. If Spieth keeps things in play off the tee, his advantages in the rest of his game should pay off enough to reach this spot.

PGA Championship
Betting History

Recent Winners (Odds to win)

• 2019 - Brooks Koepka (10/1)
• 2018 - Brooks Koepka (18/1)
• 2017 - Justin Thomas (35/1)
• 2016 - Jimmy Walker (125/1)
• 2015 - Jason Day (12/1)

Brooks Koepka captured the 2019 PGA Championship at the infamous 'Black Course' at Bethpage State Park in Farmingdale, New York on Long Island. Koepka entered the tournament as the defending champion and he posted a wire-to-wire victory with a score of 8-under.

Koepka joined Tiger Woods as the only players to win back-to-back titles in that major. Most sportsbooks had Koepka listed as the 10/1 co-favorite (Bet $100 to win $1,000) to win the 2019 PGA Championship.

How to Bet on Golf

Golf betting has gained much more exposure and interest in the past few years, and with plenty of plus-money prices littered throughout the various forms of golf wagers, the chance for bigger scores is part of the reason behind that increased popularity.

Sportsbooks ensure that there are no shortage of wagering options on golf tournaments every week, and it isn't all about picking the winner. Grabbing the outright winner of a golf tournament is the best way to get that 'big score' but it's also the hardest wager to cash. After all, a typical professional golf tournament has a field of 140+ different players to consider.

Understanding Golf Odds and Bets

Most golf odds are listed in the fractional format – 10/1 on Dustin Johnson for example – and in that particular case you would multiply the amount bet by that first number to project your winnings. So a $100 bet on DJ to win that particular event would win you $1000.

If you are more comfortable with the American version of odds listings that you typically see across the other major North American sports – ie +1000 – these numbers are easily convertible. Online and app based books may already have that option built in, but the easiest way to do it yourself is to add two zeros to the first number in the fraction. So a 10/1 price on DJ converts to +1000 in that format.

This article is part of our Betting on Golf series.

WGC-Workday Championship Betting Strategy

The PGA Tour heads to Bradenton for the first of four events that comprise the Florida Swing, beginning with this week's WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession Golf Club. It's the first Tour event at The Concession after the COVID-19 pandemic moved the event from just outside Mexico City, where the tournament had been held the last four years. It's an even stronger field than the one we saw at Riviera last week, with 48 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Ranking in action, and only Tiger Woods and Paul Casey not in the field. Last year, Patrick Reed made three birdies in the final four holes to win this event by a single stroke over Bryson DeChambeau.

The first WGC event of the year brings a more diverse field than the typical PGA Tour event, with players from all over the globe arriving for a guaranteed paycheck in this no-cut event. This week presents a different challenge when it comes to handicapping the field, in that we don't have any course history to go off of. This Jack Nicklaus designed course plays as a par-72 at over 7,500 yards, making it one of the 10 longest courses we'll see on Tour this year. As such, the longer hitters off the tee will have an added advantage.

Despite a large contingent of players living in Florida, there won't be much of a home course advantage like we saw for Max Homa last week, as most of the players that reside in the state live on the opposite coast and haven't spent time prepping at the course following the late change in venue.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 4:00 PM ET Tuesday.

Who's Down With WGC?

The following five players have the lowest scoring averages in WGC events since 2019:

• Rory McIlroy 67.8
• Brooks Koepka 67.9
• Justin Thomas 67.9
• Dustin Johnson 68.4
• Xander Schauffele 68.5

McIlroy is looking to complete the WGC Grand Slam, as the WGC-Workday Championship is the only one that has eluded him. His consistency in these events since 2019 has been unmatched, as he has the lowest scoring average with a win and a total of four top-5 results. Schauffele is the only player on this list that hasn't won a WGC event since 2019, but he does hold one career WGC title. Since winning the Tournament of Champions just over two years ago, Schauffele has finished runner-up eight times without recording a victory despite owning a final-round scoring average of 68.3 in those events.

Striking the Right Chord

These players have gained the most strokes off-the-tee and approach combined over their last 20 rounds:

• Jon Rahm 1.52
• Dustin Johnson 1.48
• Bubba Watson 1.40
• Collin Morikawa 1.33
• Patrick Cantlay 1.21

Ball striking is a key component at any WGC event, and no player has been better in that area of late than Rahm. Although his short game hasn't been great recently, he still comes in with a streak of 12 consecutive top-25 finishes. Meanwhile, Morikawa enters the week a bit under the radar. After winning the PGA Championship last August, Morikawa missed three of his next five cuts – a surprising stretch considering he had missed only one cut in 26 events as a professional before that. Although he only finished tied for 43rd last week, he seems to have found his old form, ranking second at Riviera in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Outright Picks

Bryson DeChambeau (37-2)

DeChambeau is one of the few players in the field that has course history at The Concession – it's where he won the 2015 NCAA Championship. His game has changed a bit since then, but the prior success is a nice bonus. DeChambeau's prowess off the tee should suit him well here, and his approach play has been much better this season. This feels similar to the U.S. Open, when he came without his best form and won at a discounted price.

Scottie Scheffler (93-2)

I rank Scheffler as the best golfer in search of his first win, and the lack of a victory has him underpriced as a result. He comes in with solid form, having been in the final group on Sunday at the Phoenix Open and having fired the second-best round of the day in the final round of the Genesis Invitational despite losing strokes on the putting surface. Scheffler is not one to be shy in big events – he posted a top-5 at the PGA Championship and another in the first playoff event, in which he fired a second-round 59.

Bubba Watson (110-1)

It's been three years since Watson's last win, and at 42 years old it's easy to write him off. His play has suggested otherwise, though, as he posted top-10 results at The CJ Cup and ZOZO Championship last fall – two similar no-cut events with strong fields. He led the field in SG: Tee-to-Green at The CJ Cup and has looked a lot more like himself since last season's playoff events.

Top-10 Picks

Abraham Ancer (5-1)

Ancer had the misfortune of being stuck in Texas during the winter storm, and he arrived in Los Angeles late last Wednesday without any practice and ultimately missed the cut. Ancer's had good success in WGC events lately, with three straight top-15 results. He's also gained strokes on the field in both off-the-tee and approach play in his last three tournaments.

Lanto Griffin (6-1)

Griffin is a bit of a late-bloomer, but he had a remarkable 2019-20 season and qualified for the TOUR Championship after making the jump from the Korn Ferry Tour. There's no real weakness in his game, as he's sneaky long and is developing into one of the better iron players on Tour. He's getting more starts in more-prominent events like this one, and has top-10s in both the BMW Championship and The CJ Cup under his belt.

Golf Betting Odds Pga Championship Payout

Cameron Champ (12-1)

Champ has one of the highest variances on Tour – he is equally as capable of finishing bottom-10 as he is top-10. At these odds, he's certainly worth the risk, and DeChambeau is the only player in the field that hits it farther. He has two top-10 results in his last 13 events, both coming in events with strong fields: the PGA Championship and ZOZO Championship.

Golf Betting Odds Pga Championship Wins

Head-to-Head Picks

Matthew Wolff (-120) over Marc Leishman

Wolff has saved some of his best golf for the bigger events, with top-5 results in two of the last three majors. He's struggled a bit with driving accuracy this year, but he's typically going to be one of the best ball-strikers in the field. Leishman has had a few good results lately, but that's been in large part due to solid putting the last two weeks, and his T4 at the Sony Open was at a much shorter course. He'll be at a disadvantage this week on a long track.

Carlos Ortiz (-143) over Mackenzie Hughes

Talk about two guys trending in the opposite direction: Ortiz has been one of the better golfers on Tour of late, while Hughes hasn't looked the same since the end of last season. Since winning the Houston Open last fall, Ortiz has been in contention in the final round in three of his last six events. Hughes hasn't finished top-30 in any of his three WGC appearances, and like Leishman, he is a shorter hitter that will be at a disadvantage.

Jason Kokrak (-106) over Tommy Fleetwood

Golf Betting Odds Pga Championship Fedex Cup

Fleetwood is a slight favorite in this matchup, and I'm struggling to figure out why. Since the Tour's restart last year, Fleetwood's best result in 10 events was a share of 19th at the Masters. Kokrak showed good form in Los Angeles, entering the weekend with a share of second place. He also stepped up his game last fall with a top-20 finish at the ZOZO Championship and his first Tour title at The CJ Cup.